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Project Risk Quantification: Methods that Work

  • McKissack & McKissack 901 K Street NW, 6th Floor Washington, DC 20001 USA (map)

“Project Risk Quantification: Methods that Work”

Capital project decision makers and managers depend on the reliability of our risk analyses to give them confidence that their decisions have a solid cost and schedule basis. To deliver this, we as cost engineers need to apply risk quantification (RQ) methods that work. To pass the “does it work?” test, our RQ methods should be:

♦ based on empirical research and validated against actual data,

♦ applicable on all projects in a company’s portfolio – simple and complex, large and small, conceptual or detailed, and good or bad quality estimates and schedules, and

♦ simple enough that consultants are not needed (other than an outside view for strategic projects.)

Unfortunately, the most common methods fail to meet one or more of these criteria. The presentation will review empirical research on cost growth, schedule slip and accuracy and will present an integrated set of RQ methods “that work” for projects, programs and portfolios of every description for both owners and contractors. Attendees will take away a working parametric systemic risk model.   

The presentation is based on “Project Risk Quantification: A Practitioner’s Guide to Realistic Cost and Schedule Risk Management”, a new book by Mr. Hollmann from Probabilistic Publishing ( Some lucky attendees will get a free copy of the book.



John K. Hollmann is the owner of Validation Estimating, LLC in Virginia. He works with capital program senior managers and project leaders to improve practices in cost estimating, project control, and cost/schedule risk quantification. John regularly reviews major international project estimates and conducts risk analyses to support investment decision making. Mr. Hollmann is a frequent speaker at international conferences, has written numerous papers, and was lead author of the AACE International text, the Total Cost Management Framework. John is an Honorary Life Member of AACE and recipient of their Award of Merit. He also led development of the AACE Decision and Risk Management Professional (DRMP) certification. Prior to founding Validation Estimating, Mr. Hollmann led the Cost Engineering Committee (CEC) metrics and research efforts at Independent Project Analysis, Inc. (IPA). John is a registered Professional Engineer and, via AACE, a Certified Cost Professional, a Cost Estimating Professional, and Decision and Risk Management Professional.

Webinar Participants will also earn .25 Continuing Education Units for Recertification